As a follow-up on last week’s post, here’s Paul Krugman on Nate Silver’s new FiveThirtyEight:
I’d argue that many of the critics are getting the problem wrong. It’s not the reliance on data; numbers can be good, and can even be revelatory. But data never tell a story on their own. They need to be viewed through the lens of some kind of model, and it’s very important to do your best to get a good model. And that usually means turning to experts in whatever field you’re addressing.
A tentative suggestion: It seems to me that when Krugman says “model”, philosophers of science might prefer to say “mechanism”. I don’t think Krugman wants you to use a particular way of representing reality (a model); he wants you to analyze data with reference to the actual entities and interactions in the system under study (its mechanism).